Time, Jan 10, 2005 v165 i2 p57
Jumping to Conclusions:
Think fast! Malcolm Gladwell argues that snap decisions can be
better than slow, thoughtful ones. (Science/Behavior)(Book
Review) Grossman, Lev.
Full Text:
COPYRIGHT 2005 Time, Inc.
Byline: Lev Grossman
Vic Braden has a special talent, and it's driving him nuts.
Braden, a well-known tennis coach, can tell when a player is about
to double-fault before the tennis racket even meets the ball. He
doesn't know how; it just comes to him in a flash. One year he
watched the tournament at Indian Wells and called 16 out of 17
double faults before they happened. This freaks him out. "What did I
see?" Braden wonders. "I would lie in bed thinking, 'How did I do
this? I don't know.' It drove me crazy."
Apparently, it drives Malcolm Gladwell crazy too because he has
written a whole book about it titled Blink: The Power of Thinking
Without Thinking (Little, Brown; 277 pages). Gladwell isn't a
psychologist or a tennis pro. He's a journalist, a staff writer for
the New Yorker, but he likes to dabble in those kinds of intriguing,
messily interdisciplinary problems, to which he brings his
singularly lucid, clarifying intellect.
The Tipping Point, Gladwell's first book, was a study of the
unexpectedly viral ways that ideas, trends and fads spread through
the general population. In Blink Gladwell takes as his subject the
snap decision. Why, he wants to know, do intuitive, unconscious,
seat-of-the- pants judgments, made in seconds on the basis of very
little information, so often turn out better than better-informed,
more thoughtful choices?
Gladwell concedes defeat at the outset: what goes on in the
locked magician's trunk of the unconscious will always be a mystery.
But we can keep careful track of what goes into the box and what
comes out of it. The unconscious mind is astonishingly good at
filtering out superfluous data and seizing on essential truth, we
learn, but too much time or information can confuse and blind it.
And the unconscious mind can be trained. The psychologist John
Gottman can watch a 15-minute videotape of a husband and wife about
whom he knows nothing and predict with 90% accuracy whether they
will still be married in 15 years. Gladwell, with his infernal gift
for coining buzzwords, calls the rapid analysis performed by the
unconscious mind "thin slicing."
Gladwell's real genius is as a storyteller. He's like an
omniscient, many-armed Hindu god of anecdotes: he plucks them from
every imaginable field of human endeavor. The art historian who can
instantly spot a forgery that fooled a battery of scientific tests
but can't explain why. The ornithologist can identify at 200 yards
an exotic bird he's never seen in flight before. The psychologist
who has catalogued the 10,000 expressions of which the human face is
capable. Gladwell hangs with superstar car salesmen and
emergency-room cardiologists, badass battlefield commanders and
improv-comedy troupes. He even talks to speed daters. Says a
disappointed woman, memorably, about a roomful of unsuccessful
suitors: "They lost me at hello."
In fact, Gladwell throws so many anecdotes at us in Blink, from
so many directions, that sometimes it's a little hard to be certain
what they prove. Sure, producer Brian Grazer knew right away that
Tom Hanks had star potential when he auditioned for Splash. But is
that kind of judgment really analogous to the split-second
decision-making process of a Marine in a war game? Or of the New
York City policemen who decided, incorrectly, that immigrant Amadou
Diallo was holding a gun and not his wallet?
But if Gladwell sometimes plays fast and loose with his evidence,
he's easy to forgive because going fast is so darn fun. It's hard to
say what Gladwell is trying to prove with a section on professional
food tasters, for instance, but, hey, did you know that food
scientists have a 15-point scale for measuring crispiness, on which
Quaker's Chewy Chocolate Chunk Granola Bars are a 2 and Kellogg's
Corn Flakes a 14? What Gladwell is saying in Blink is often less
compelling than the facts he uses to back himself up. Who doesn't
know that tall, good-looking people get preferential treatment? But
Gladwell's analysis of the political career of Warren G.
Harding--who was a lousy President but (apparently) a hot, hot
man--is mesmerizing.
Remember the Pepsi Challenge? It was what we can call a "Classic"
example of the limits of Blink-style thinking. According to
Gladwell, Coca-Cola executives were so distraught over statistics
showing that Pepsi beat Coke in those blind, one-sip face-offs that
they came up with New Coke. New Coke beat Pepsi in taste tests, but
it flopped spectacularly in the market. The geniuses at Coca-Cola
had forgotten that the real world is very different from a focus
group. Nobody drinks Coke blind, nor do they just take one sip.
Consumers drink a whole can, and that affects how they make their
choices.
Which proves what, exactly? My conscious mind has no idea. But to
Gladwell's credit, my unconscious found it royally entertaining. *
[QUOTE:]
TOO MUCH TIME AND TOO MUCH INFORMATION CONFUSE AND BLIND
US