New Scientist, Feb 12, 2005 v185 i2486
p48(1)
The speed of thought:
Paul Marsden on how to seize the moment. (Blink book by Malcolm
Gladwell)(Book Review) Marsden, Paul.
Full Text:
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Blink by Malcolm Gladwell,
Allen Lane/Little, Brown, 16.99 [pounds sterling]/$25.95, ISBN
0713997273
SUFFERING from information overload? Well here's the cure. You
need to "thin-slice". Thin-slicing is a neat cognitive trick that
involves taking a narrow slice of data, just what you can capture in
the blink of an eye, and letting your intuition do the work for you.
This is the prescription of Blink, the new popular-psychology book
from Malcolm Gladwell, staff writer for The New Yorker and author of
the cult business bestseller The Tipping Point.
Blink introduces us to the power of thin-slicing by way of
example. Take the "Love Lab" at the University of Washington, where
psychologist John Gottman has been thin-slicing the way couples
interact since the early 1980s. In no more than 15 minutes of
observation, Gottman can predict with 90 per cent accuracy whether a
couple will be together in 15 years. Or consider how an art expert
recently thin-sliced a 2500year-old Greek statue in the blink of an
eye and was able to tell it was a fake. Or consult the retired
soldier whose thin-slicing intuition can outwit the supercomputers
of the US armed forces.
The great thing about thin-slicing, argues Gladwell, is that we
can all do it, especially when it comes to thin-slicing each other.
Evolution has honed our social intelligence, allowing us to read
people accurately based on fleeting first impressions--which is why
the fashion for speed dating might actually be a good idea.
Blinkdraws on cognitive psychology to explain how our powers of
thin-slicing intuition have nothing to do with the supernatural, and
everything to do with our naturally evolved adaptive
unconsciousness. Our conscious mind is the tip of the cognitive
iceberg, and what we feel as intuition is really the result of
unconscious rapid cognition, fast and frugal information processing
that goes on subliminally. Thin-slicing harnesses this powerful
adaptive unconsciousness, allowing us to make smart decisions based
on minimal information and minimal deliberation.
Ironically, Blink only falters in its convincing argument when we
thin-slice it, taking it as an unqualified celebration of intuition
over critical thinking. But it is nothing of the kind, says
Gladwell, as he warns how reacting intuitively to a situation can
have disastrous consequences. He recounts how an undercover police
team recently thin-sliced an ambiguous situation in the Bronx,
panicked and shot an innocent man 41 times. The problem with
thin-slicing, Gladwell correctly explains, is that it uses
contextual cues, internal stereotypes and even prejudice to tell us
what to do.
So, to thin-slice or not to thin-slice, that is the question.
Unfortunately, Blink does not provide us with a clear answer.
Gladwell hints that ultimately we should rely on thin-slicing only
when our intuition has been honed by experience and training. This,
he goes on to suggest, is not as onerous as it might seem. A mere 30
minutes of training with the experts back at the Love Lab will have
you predicting with 80 per cent accuracy, and in the blink of an
eye, whether couples will remain together.
The joy of Blink is not in the final message that listening to
experts instead of our own untrained intuition is a good idea, but
in the intellectual adventure Gladwell takes us on to get there.
Doing what he does best, Gladwell accompanies us on an exhilarating
roller-coaster ride through the latest highlights of cognitive
psychology, making the science of mind exciting and relevant to all
those who have one. Blink deserves to be the success that it will
certainly become.
Paul Marsden is a research psychologist at the London School of
Economics